Can’t Stop. Won’t Stop. GameStop. So, What’s Next?

by | Mar 17, 2021 | General | 0 comments

First things first, this post is for entertainment purposes only. The writer’s tone, expression, language used, references, humor is way over the top Wall Street bro-ish, and yes, extremely cringe. But this is satire (can’t believe I have to explicitly state the obvious). And If you really think the publisher of this blog’s last post really is a White Supremacist, then this post is definitely not for you. Trigger warning, lol.

Can’t Stop. Won’t Stop. GameStop. So, What’s Next?

Listen up, you vaccinated sheeple! Your shepherd is back, and not to gloat, because what’s to gloat about?

LOL! GTFO! Are you kidding me? CHEERS, LE’CHAYIM, TO LIFE motherfuckers! If any one of you ten nine readers managed to not hate money for like, five seconds, and followed the guidance in my last post, that was very neatly laid out for you like the way your moms lays out your spiderman undies, the only bags you’d be left holding woulda been 10 baggers. My new PT is $900 EOY, based on fundamentals alone; none of that gamma squeeze, short squeeze bull shit (which, oh by the way, is still very much in play). But $900 EOY solely on Ryan Cohen’s transformation to digital.

If you need hand holding, here’s how to play: Shares are a shore shot. Alliteration aside, a $900+ in less than 9 months’ belief puts the current price of $200ish/share (as of this writing) at bargain basement deal level. And currently, to get volatility this juicy, we’d have to look back to circa summer of 1996 “When I Dip. You dip. We dip”.

But if you’re like my ex, and want options, ATM and OTM IV is muy mucho grande, even for my liking. Theta gang, ftw. You’re hella determined to put money on a roulette number? I get it. Then I’d go with any strike you feel comfortable with losing everything, because again, crazy uncomfortably high IV. Any strike between $220 to $690. Honestly, I really don’t give a rat’s ass which strike you pick, so long as you choose, and I can’t stress this enough, the 2021 March 26th expiration.

Oh yessir. I. Am. Jacked. JACKED TO THE TITS! Can you feel it?

GameStop reports their 20Q4 numbers on Mar. 23rd, but more importantly, it’s the first time the public gets to hear from Ryan Cohen donning his newly pressed GameStop t-shirt as a board member. What’s the news? Whispers about a CFO announcement? RC’s vision? RC as CEO? A partnership or acquisition? Ohhh, a Stock buy-back? Stock split? Board vote which would require a share recall?

If you can afford it, I’d also drop some coin on the April 2nd expiration as well. Let’s see how this week plays out and pick an entry point you’re comfy with.

I hold a wide array of calls expiring between 03/19/21 and 04/16/21, as well as what some might call an inordinate amount of shares. But I have absolutely no trouble sleeping, and it has not impacted my morning constitutions (introduction of some Benefiber, which can be a guest blog post all to itself) because I’m at a cost basis $37.44.

But I’m not here today to yell into an echo chamber. I know you’re secretly reading this for confirmation bias, outlandish speculation, research with contrarian (and sometimes contradicting) views, and I’m here today to toss you monkeys a value play banana that’s grown from the nutrient-deprived soil of Boomer fundamentals!

Stimmy Stimmy Y’all, Stimmy Yam,  Stimmy Yay.

Now there are few certainties in life, one of which is that nothing, and I mean NOTHING, makes a Boomer investor drop buckets of $CUM like a big D. Fact. That’s right! That thick, quarterly “D”ividend with the girth of a 1.5 liter sprite bottle. Which brings us to United Wholesale Mortgage Holdings Corporation ($UWMC).

Wait, what? Hold up… Boomer? Now, I know what you all are probably thinking… Look everyone, look at Nostradamus on the struggle bus (aka Michael Burry, lol). He’s  promoting a value stock that:

✓ Generates revenue?!?!

✓ Has no debt?!?!

✓ And pays dividends?!?!

What’s next? Slaving away every day for the next 20-30+ years to squirrel away 5% of salary in a tax deferred account, that if touched before 59 ½ gets your asshole glass mason jar’d, only to watch your money grow a measly ~6% yoy, all for the privilege to enjoy a fixed income pittance during retirement, which will only be for all of 10 years before death? Well la-de-fucking-da! SIGN ME THE FUCK UP! ‘MERICA, FUCK YEAH!

Chillax, Romeo! White? Black? Asian? Latino? It’s all pink on the inside. Don’t discriminate against a good play just because it doesn’t fit your degenerate investor profile. If you’re getting your knob slobbed, do you really care if it’s by a California 7? Lol, let’s be real, more like a Cleveland 4. Are you really judging how the top of her head looks (or back of head, depending on their approach for landing)? You really should be judging their standards, and specifically, what horrors and PTSD they’ve suffered, and decisions they’ve made that ultimately lead them down life’s path to fellating you, in a 2004 rusted Toyota Corolla, behind a Quick-Mart..

Most plays don’t return 10x bags, ever! Let alone multi-baggers on the reg. So, like last call at the bar, let’s lower our standards, swab some Vick’s Vapor Rub in our nostrils, and dive right down into this bitch.

$UWMC, like your wife’s vajeen, has seen a lot of traffic over the last couple weeks and I, like the good pal I am to you ingrates, think that it’s worth bringing to your attention. Some yuge reasons that we need to consider…

Here’s Why I Likey (TL;DR version):

Recap, and why you should likey:

$UWMC got a little bit of traction a month or so ago leading up to its earnings report after a massive SPAC deal. Guess what? It absolutely crushed its earnings. UWM reported 4Q20 net income of $1.37 billion and FY20 net income of $3.38 billion, an 821% and 715% increase over 4Q19 and FY19 respectively. This company is just getting started and has massive opportunity for growth. It was trading around $11 and got as high as $12 leading up to the earnings report. What happened after they released news that they absolutely crushed it? The stock got crushed, and it kept plummeting (currently floating around $8.XX/share). It had maybe 4 green days out of 30 in the month after its earnings report. Why?

That’s right. Those dreaded, pesky shorts. But don’t worry, they’ll be gone soon enough, leaving the stock to trade at a fair and unrestrictive value.

Additionally, it’s a great income stock! UWMC declared its first regular quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share ($0.40 annually). The dividend is payable on April 6, 2021 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2021 (so last week, bruh). But more than enough time for next quarter – I gotchu fam.

There are plenty of other catalysts and reasons to long this. It is getting added to the Russell 1000 and 3000 index by the end of this month, and it will absolutely crush its earnings again next quarter. You’ve more than enough time to get in now.

Now listen up, nerds. I’m going to bust out my crayolas and start doodling. Try not to get distracted by the colors and the squiggles, because I went over some of the financial statements and previous investor presentations so you don’t have to. Additionally, the tone of the last few paragraph has actually retarded my handicapped writing, and not gonna lie, I kinda like it? So I’m gonna go with it and stick mostly to the numbers sans the personal commentary. Let’s get through this together, because it’s gonna be dry… like your wife’s. Plowing ahead here… We’ll further connect the dots as to why this is an attractive buy and hold right now. Even Robert Verdun, a company insider, recently made a purchase of common stock at $7.97 per share on March 1st 2021. This tells us that even insiders currently think the stock is undervalued at its current valuation.

From an earlier presentation (below) we also note that UWMC, which (at the time when I started writing this Neverending Story II) is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of ~$7.21, Basically, that’s undervalued in comparison to their peers, and undervalued by the market. If not for anything else, we can take a bullish stance and slap a conservative base target of ~$12.

UWMC has been seeing constant growth, like call a doctor after four hours type growth, which was further accelerated due to Covid-19 and, in case you haven’t noticed because you insist on taking covid tests rectally, the detached-from-reality high housing demand. UWMC’s growth, a strong-like-bull balance sheet, paired with a large increase in closed loan volume give all the more reason to buy her lap dance on a discounted Tuesday afternoon, because it’s only a matter of time before she’ll be staging Saturday nights.

UWMC is also more efficient than its peers, including RKT. Meaning, she can turn 2.76 dances for every 1 that her biggest competitor cranks out.

Lastly, and this needs no explanation, follow the smart money. Hedge funds have been adding calls, per the recent 13F filings – YAY CONFIRMATION BIAS!

Suffice to say, $UWMC is a good buy right now. I’m playing $9.00c 04/16/21, $9.00c 05/21/21, and shares locked in at a $8.17 cost basis.

Jesus Christ, Man! Gimme something, anything, without high Short interest! Do you even stonk, bruh?

I’m glad you asked. Lemme take you back to biblical times, 2014. A time with no masks and no domestic terrorism; a much simpler time when the biggest controversy to make the 24-hour news cycle was Obama’s tan suit.

This was before the market was hyperbolic, high af off raw tax-cuts, and totally disconnected from the economy; there was no Fed money printer on a constant brrrrrrrr, fundamentals weren’t out the window, and everything wasn’t inflated to fuckall. And there she was, true to value and my true love, Dr. Lisa “Sexy” Su.

Well, technically, $TTD was my first, first true love. But that’s a post for another time, and that’s one abusive, toxic relationship that I can’t seem to kick. But every time $TTD blackened my eye(s) or emasculated me, there she was, Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) to pick me right back up; she nurtured me, combed my hair, fed me chicken soup from her teat. ‘Ol reliable Dr. Su.

Now take a look at AMD’s performance over the last month, below. See that… DIP? Lets go! When I dip, you dip, we dip.  Thank that inflation scare induced tech selloff a few weeks back, because I’ve had eyes on AMD and been swing-trading this biddy for years, and given the reasons I’ll outline below, enhanced by their fire sale prices, AMD is now sexier than ever.

Full disclaimer and fair warning, this is going to be boring. But boring is good. Boring is reliable. $AMD and I go way back, and this post is going to reflect that. So if you want to skip all the fawning, gushing, and ya-ya nipple suckling, the play here is to buy shares and LEAPS. Like drafting BAL or PIT defense – Just set it and forget it. Or set price alerts or limit buys and sells. IDGAF, it’s good either way. That said, here’s a different sentiment from the slop I normally serve up.

[Inhale] $AMD is undervalued, well positioned versus their peers and ready to bully further market share away in rapidly growing, high demand industries. AMD is mainly known in gaming, and we all know what potential lies ahead in the $150B+ gaming industry; however, I believe the recent AMD dip has created an excellent opportunity.

First, let’s look at how AMD compares to some of its competition:

  • If you are into PC gaming – or not – it is apparent the CPU sentiment has greatly shifted away from and avoided Intel in favor of AMD. Like any female avoiding you at the bar.
  • The main reasons AMD CPUs are shortening have a long runaway is because they offer significantly more bang for your buck versus Intel CPUs. $INTC has recently had disappointing new product releases, and even high budget PCs are often abandoning Intel entirely. CPU Comparison
  • AMD just released new GPUs a few weeks ago, which are superior in performance and more affordable than many of Nvidia’s top of the line models. Even though they are still high in price, this shows that AMD is very able and willing to compete with NVDA’s top of the line GPUs. They sold out initially within a couple hours of release. GPU Comparison
  • AMD produces both the CPUs and GPUs in BOTH the Playstation 5 and Xbox Series X. Need I say more? These consoles released a few months ago and will be in extremely high demand for the next ~5 years or more. How AMD gained hold of the console market. In other words, you want COD, you need AMD.

NVDA Market Cap: $290B vs INTC Market Cap $245B vs AMD Market Cap: $89.5B

As I am typing this, AMD is currently around $83 price per share. Even if AMD somehow had extremely minimal future growth (I will further outline why future growth will actually be astronomical), it would still fundamentally be valued at/around its current price AT MINIMUM, and that’s with boomer estimates. Every tech has rebounded since the selloff, except AMD., which is why I think AMD is being underestimated by Wall Street. There’s more than enough room for all of these companies in the gaming and adjacent industries. The gaming industry experienced record growth in 2020, and isn’t stopping any time soon.

I hear some mumbles that the end of lockdowns will mean less people playing video games or using computers, and frankly, I don’t think this claim is even worth seriously addressing. If you seriously think that you may be a little out of touch. I’d even go as far to say that eSports revenue will overtake the NFLs revenue in the coming years, but again, another blog post for another time.

Other Industries?

While my focus has been on AMD’s success in the gaming industry, their GPU’s are also widely used for mining digital currencies, which currently doesn’t account for a huge revenue boost, but it is still worth mentioning that market and the large demand that it brings. We’ve also seen NVDA branch off into the autonomous driving and AI industries, AMD could easily do the same. AMD CEO, Lisa Su, has previously expressed interest in branching towards EV and AI industries, and says AMD’s technology is already there.

Semiconductor Shortage?

The recent semiconductor shortage can be bearish on AMD and related companies. Sure, it’s an issue, but it is short term, and (I think) these shortages have been more than priced in by now. Demand is extremely high, which is good, and AMD is working on increasing their capacity. Sexy Su says she expects shortages to ease the second half of 2021, adding that they will have added capacity in the second half of 2021.

If that still doesn’t sooth your smooth brain, the House of Biden has committed to easing the shortage.

The demand for AMD products is extremely high, which is long term bullish. Dr. Lisa Su is great CEO! Number 1 CEO! She has carved out a very advantageous spot for the company. I can confidently say that if I ever impregnated a CEO, Sexy Su is the ONLY CEO who I would let carry my child to term (could you imagine a half me, half Larry Ellison mongo child. Ew!).

I tried to keep this analysis relatively short and sweet – HA! Believe me, this is the abridged version. IV on $AMD calls at the moment are extremely low, historically low. Get low! Get low!

This makes it a  great time to buy calls AND shares – But what the fuck else would you expect from me? Maybe change it up and sell some Puts at a Strike you’d feel comfortable entering at? But I recommend you give yourself enough time in case the market is late to recognize, but it will come around. AMD continues to dip along with the rest of tech, but YOLO to your heart’s content if you’d like; with that said: $100c 7/16/21; $120c 01/21/22; Shares at cost basis 83.25

Thank you for attending my TED talk!

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