I stay with my sporting convictions. They are usually caused by a moment in a game or event where I say, “that athlete is better than everyone else”. OBJ’s 1 handed catch. Jamaal Charles running for 259 yards in ’09. Louis taking down Spieth and DJ and the US Open in ’15. Wait. That never happened. This causes me to back these types in virtually any circumstance which can be costly. Patrick Mahomes has been on the top of my list for the past two years since his comeback victory over the Niners in ’20. I lost oodles on him the last 2 years vs Brady and Burrow. This year is redemption.
The Futures
These are the futures bets I’ve made on the Chiefs this year.
MVP
Mahomes is currently in the lead for MVP at -175, and barring injury, it’s his to lose. Josh Allen at +700 seems like a fine bet to me, but I’m not nearly as convinced on the Bills as the public. Allen is a great QB who has put up monster numbers in recent years with little post season success against Mahomes (losses in 2020 & 2021). The Bills won in a regular season game this year, but it means little to me. There is no reason to think Josh Allen can beat Mahomes in the playoffs. Allen has an uncanny ability to convert on 3rd as he offers up his body and that won’t last in the NFL. He’s too careless with the football (leads the league in turnovers) and Mahomes is the guy you want on your team leading you on the final drive. Josh Allen is not better than Patrick Mahomes at football.
Bills vs Chiefs
When this game happens in the playoffs, and it will be a shame if it doesn’t, you can bet I’ll have a fortune on the Chiefs. I was shocked when the Chiefs lost to the Bengals last year. I’m still uncertain how that happened. When the Bills get to play the Chiefs, you’ll see the best football game of the year, just like last year, and the Chiefs will be victorious. The +450 odds on the Super Bowl is the best you’re going to get if you agree with this post. I don’t see any team aside from Cowboys or Bucs (pure Brady gamesmanship) who could hang with Mahomes from the NFC. As a guy who has an Eagles future, how Hurts is going to run the gamut of the playoffs and win the SuperBowl seems like a longshot at +550 as much as I hate to say it. If I had to pick another team, it would be the Bengals to make a run at 25-1 currently as I’m a Burrow/Chase believer. Considering I have no exposure to the Bills, them winning would pain me a bit. Perhaps I’ll put a bit as a hedge to make sure I get something.
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