On July 25th I wrote this post Money Bleeds Green that made 4 NFL predictions. Jags over 8 wins, Mike Evans will finish as WR3, draft CMC #1, and Broncos under 7 wins. Currently the Jags are 4-5, Evans is the THE WR1, CMC is averaging 28ppg compared to 21 from Dalvin Cook (#2), and the Broncos are 3-6. Not too shabby.
I start with that update because I’ve been on a wild ride and am looking forward to the latter part of the season. After losing $150 on the Korkmaz 3 that beat the Trailblazers, and another $150 betting on college football (I have to stop this), I hit a $30 6 team teaser on Sunday, then hit the Bambino parlay last night for $50. That’s still losing, but the momentum is turning as I hit my second week out of 3 in an NFL pick em, winning a 7 way tie breaker guessing 57 points (and Dallas). Combine that with a 4-0 week in fantasy and we’re in the home stretch.
A few thoughts about gambling as these posts are simple to write:
- If you’re in a 7 way tie in a pick em, don’t pick 44 as your over/under. Jesus the herd is dumb.
- If you’re going to plunge, like I did on the Blazers and Adam did on the Colts, you are going to win every time but once.
- Listening to people for bets is a risk. No one knows it all. PFF lost me 3 straight CFB bets on Saturday. I find I’m just as bad as people who are paid to give picks.
- In fantasy, this is crunch time. Bad owners stop playing and good teams make the playoffs looking to do damage. Stick with it.