With the assassination attempt on Trump yesterday, this post feels less relevant now than it would have 24 hours ago. But the story of Biden’s age, will he drop out, will other democrats speak out against him, etc. has been absolutely fascinating to me for the past month or two. I can’t remember the last time I was this interested in a political story (aside from perhaps that if a bullet was one inch to the right yesterday Trump’s head would’ve exploded). I wanted to write what I find so interesting.

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Biden’s Age

At this point, most people have concluded that yes, Biden is showing significant signs of mental decline. In a vacuum, presented with no context, I think most people would say “this man should NOT be the President of the United States“. The debate a few weeks ago was a disaster and since then it seems that almost every day a new clip emerges that make it pretty clear he’s not doing well.

You can argue that he’s done a good job as president and just isn’t good in public, but at this point you’re grasping at straws if you insist that he’s fit for office. He’s an old man. There’s nothing wrong with that. He’s served his country. But it’s pretty clear now that all of the hubbub about his age was legitimate, and the idea of serving another four years is pretty unrealistic.

The Campaign Strategy

It’s been well reported that the Biden campaign strategy was to largely keep him out of the public eye, especially in unscripted or long-form appearances. The obvious reason being that people would catch on to the fact that he’s too old. This backfired during the debate when he looked and spoke the way he did. The basic premise that they knew he was too old, and that the public would see that and be turned off, but that they’d insist he’s completely fine, is pretty bold.

Additionally, they’ve spent the last year attacking anyone who suggests his age / mental health is a problem, citing ‘ageism’, and acting as if it’s not a valid concern. They had stories that he was as sharp as ever, had plenty of stamina, etc., but all of a sudden since the public perception has changed so much, you’re now seeing things like he doesn’t do well past 8pm. It’s a horrible look to attack people for bringing up his age, “how dare you!“, and then have it so clearly be a real issue. As silly as it sounds in the game of politics, it’s a breach of trust.

The Democratic Party

Perhaps the most interesting part of this whole thing is watching big name democrats answer questions about this. It’s the elephant in the room. Very few outright say “It’s clear he’s too old“. The answers seem to range from full support of him running to something like “I trust he’ll do the right thing“.

The reason so few have spoken up is purely out of self-interest, the ugly game of politics. Being the first, or one of the few, to speak up and say he’s unfit makes you look like a traitor to the party and jeopardizes your political career. But this story and the polling have gotten enough momentum that the tide does seem to be turning. More and more democrats are speaking up, which is encouraging in a sense, and also makes for incredible theater.

The Succession Plan

This is what seems most impossible / irresponsible to me; that Biden’s team and / or the democratic party had done no planning in the event that Biden wasn’t ready for 2024. For the past four years, it seems that this wasn’t even a thought. I feel like a ‘good’ democrat would win this election easily, but it’s gone the other direction. Instead of encouraging good candidates to come forward, it’s felt more threatening, another “how dare you!“.

However, that leads us to – if not Biden, then who?

The obvious answer would be Kamala Harris. There’s a lot of baggage with that story alone, that Biden and her aren’t super close, that she polls low, that she did poorly in the last election cycle, etc. It seems risky to give her the reigns, and Biden clearly thinks he has a better shot than she does. Other than her, there are a handful of names that have floated around but none seem like they’d be clearly better than Biden in terms of beating Trump, which makes Biden less likely to step aside.

As a Democrat

I’m a democrat. I voted for Biden in 2020. I honestly don’t follow politics that closely but the things I listen to say he’s been reasonably good in terms of getting things done, despite some bad policies and the obvious gaffes in public.

This is wildly disappointing.

I’m disappointed in Biden for not being realistic, not planning a successor, and not stepping down (yet). I’m disappointed in his family / his team for seemingly being so power hungry and not planning for the future. I’m disappointed in the party representatives for having no spine and not speaking up sooner.

It’s deflating. It feels like a failure of the people as well as the system that it can get to a point like this. Other democrats may read this post and feel I’m being a traitor too, but we have no one to blame but democrats for this.

Trump

That brings us to Trump! In one sense, it’s surprising he’s not up by more in the polls, and speaks to the idea that if a ‘good’, more reasonable republican were running, this probably wouldn’t be close. They’d win far more swing voters and still retain all the Trumpers (I’m guessing). That said, am I crazy to say he’s been slightly more… normal than last go round? As if his campaign people said “just let Biden torch himself and don’t do anything too ridiculous“.

For me personally, I don’t think I could ever vote for Trump. He embodies so many negative qualities, specifically narcissism and wanting to divide the country (no intention of bringing democrats and republicans together), and has so much problematic background going on that it seems wild that he’s a nominee at all. If I was a republican, I would be saying the same thing I’m saying now about Biden, “this is the best we can do??”. I’m just waiting for him to get too old and fade into oblivion as some sort of bizarre moment in history.

Any other republican candidate would feel more… sensible than Trump, and although I’d still disagree with them on a lot, in the case of this election I may even consider voting for them.

Trump leads us to…

The Assassination Attempt

Not the primary topic of the post, but has to be addressed.

I still can’t wrap my head around what happened. A bullet hit his is EAR. It feels impossible. I won’t get into the conspiracy theories on the secret service or if it was an inside job. Call me crazy but I believe it as I see it, someone crazy tried to kill him and missed by an inch, as unlikely as that seems. This will undoubtedly fuel his campaign and his supporters. I don’t know if it will actually influence voters, but this is clearly an all-time unreal incident.

It goes without saying that despite saying I’d never vote for Trump, I don’t want him shot and killed. If you’re saying you wish he had been, then to me, you’re more part of the problem than the solution.

Which leads to…

Social Media

Social media is both amazing and horrible at the same time.

Amazing in the sense that news breaks so much faster than traditional media. We had video of what happened within minutes. Though much of it was unverified early on, it’s still the fastest way to follow live events. I also have the few accounts that I really trust to give good, measured opinions on the topics I’m interested in, which is great.

It’s horrible because of almost everything else. Reddit, though great for random subreddits, is unbearably left wing and Twitter, while being the place to get news fastest, is clearly extremely right wing. I just assume that all of the top comments are from people not really living in the world.

What Happens Next?!

It appears everything is leading to a Trump re-election which I am not excited for, but at this point who knows.

Related to Biden though, there are multiple things I can’t wait to see. How many more senior moments will we get? Will he voluntarily step down? Will the party pressure him behind the scenes? Will he be forcibly replaced? Will this divide the party beyond repair? We have months until the election, and it feels like it will be nonstop news until then.