Since the $900 dollar WFT loss, I’ve been 7-2 picking NFL outright (+$188). One of those two losses was a $339 dollar Chiefs loss which I’ll get into later. I’ve also added $1,100 dollars of 1st TD’s with $25 on Brandin Cooks (12-1), $50 on Travis Kelce (6-1), and $50 on Hunter Renfrow (10-1). I’ve incurred many losses along the way with 2 teasers going 5 of 6, lots of PGA losses, a host of bowl games, and random other 1st TD’s where my guy was WIDE OPEN EVERYTIME. This intro is setting the stage for the observation I’m making after going through some roller coaster sports betting.
You Can’t Beat the Juice!
The last nine games have all been my picks. No Evan Silva. No PFF. No Warren Sharp. As much as I’ve followed all these guys, they are no better than anyone else. This is what I wrote to Warren in case you were interested. He didn’t respond:
As a 2020 subscriber I’m curious the metrics that you use to track your bets. I reviewed this lifetime betting page, and I’m not sure where your 76-55 record comes from in 2020. I had you at 199-201 winning a total of 1.1 units and then losing 1.93 units for the playoff package. You’ll write that it’s only on “those types of picks” but we should agree this is a terrible answer because you should be responsible for every pick you release, or you shouldn’t release it. I don’t understand how you can advertise 2020 as a winning season to the people who purchased your package.
I went back and forth on writing this email because I’m not crying about the money spent or loss. Frankly, I’d like to purchase the package again because I find it more entertaining thinking I’m making better picks than I can myself, but I can’t do that if you think it’s winning and I don’t. Do you see this point?
To go back in time and reference the WFT pick, I rec’d it from a PFF writer (which I also agreed with to be fair) and got pretty drunk at the Eagles game only to forget I already made a big bet on the game and turned it into an even bigger bet. That was a bit of a blunder. Aside from that financial miscue, I’ve been relatively hot during the last few weeks. Which brings me to the Chiefs game.
After hitting the Kelce 1st TD for $300, I was certain my radar was on point. The Chiefs weren’t going to lose to Drew Lock and big spreads sometimes only look big when alas the better team wins by 40. So I loaded up on who I think is the best team in the NFL. I have futures on them as well but that’s another story. If you watched the game, you’d know they ran out the clock on the Broncos 6 yard line with 1:45 left and no TO’s for the Broncos. A TD would have covered the 10.5 (I actually had 9.5, 10.5, & 11.5) but still profitable. As the time expired, I sat there and thought…so close. I quickly remembered the MSU pick 6 to sink the Pitt cover that was winning 99% of the game last week. Then the Texans game where SF kicked a meaningless FG to cover. What about the overlooked Bengals false start that sunk the 6 team teaser and could have changed the entire game? It started to occur to me that my losses are always bad beats and my wins are because I’m a genius.
I’m reading the book Evan pointed out about skepticism and how the human brain perceives these types of instances. The book is a bit too sciencey for me but still informative. I wondered why is it that I only remember these losses and during last night’s Raiders game, that wasn’t a close call, that was me supposed to win. If the Chargers had won that game it would have been another bad beat, but I’ll never remember that game again because I won like I was supposed to.
This is post is pointing out that everyone who bets on sports is one sided. The same way you only hear bad beat stories at the poker table, you only remember the losses. It makes you wonder why people bet if they only remember losing? It is funny when you lose 10x more in the market (damnit GME) than you do on your worst sports betting day, it’s clear where the research should be going. Just pointing it out.