I have good news for everyone who cashed Bucs +3 last week from my lock. I’m back with THE surefire Super Bowl 55 bet. I’ll step you through the logic and you tell me where this goes wrong (hint: it doesn’t).

When the line came out at -3 I thought it was a little generous to the Bucs. 4-5, maybe even 6 felt more appropriate to my gambling eyes. How does that shape my bet? I LOVE Chiefs -3.

With my new advanced method of fading whatever bet I like, that means I’m all over:

Buccaneers +3

How do the Bucs keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs? Aren’t I worried at how bad Brady looked in the second half against the Packers? I don’t know the answers to these questions, I just know that I’m fading myself.

But wait…

As the last two weeks unfolded I started seeing more articles and expert-picks coming out. The post from my favorite source, the Ringer, had ALL FIVE EXPERTS pick the Chiefs. 60% of the public bets are supposedly on Chiefs -3!

I’m no betting schlub. Pre-fade-myself Sam would’ve happily been on the Chiefs for a week, then read these articles and wised up – “I’m on the Chiefs, but so is everybody else, and that’s not good. I need to reverse to the Bucs!“.

So let’s summarize this for a minute.

  • I initially liked Chiefs -3 since 3 seemed low.
  • Because of that I faded myself to Bucs -3.
  • As more people came out ALSO liking Chiefs, I realize my pre-fade-myself self would’ve flipped his pick to the Bucs -3.
  • And because I’m fading myself, I’m:


The first double fade in the history of my new method!

Take it. Leave it. I don’t care. This is bulletproof and I will be wagering pretty much my entire account on this.