I’m wrong more often than right when predicting the future. Most people are. However, when it came to Lamar Jackson and his breakout year, I was all over it and am failing to capitalize.
Bud and I were sitting at Miller’s last year in week 16 and we were watching Lamar chuck the ball all over the field. I had picked him up at the end of last season so I was watching closely. He wasn’t very accurate. Or all that impressive. But he had the ball in his hands every possession and it was noticeable that the other team wasn’t sure how to handle him. His nice run at the end of last season ended against the Chargers in the playoffs. I lost money.
Come this year and I drafted him in 3 out of 4 leagues and the one I didn’t, I spilled to a McGrath how good I thought he was and in typical McGrath fashion, he drafted him ahead of me. To be fair, Steve went to Louisville for med school so he knew about Lamar’s potential.
This takes me to my lamenting the position I’m in currently. The Ravens are +200 to win the Super Bowl with Lamar at -3000 to win the MVP, both the lowest odds. His odds to win the NFL Superbowl MVP are +260, with Mahomes at +600, the next closest.
That tells you where we are, here is where we were. Ravens were 40-1 to win the Super Bowl to start the season. On 10/9/19, he was 40-1 to win MVP.
I have to say that if I followed my gut on this one, I may have hit a long shot. That’s easy to say now of course. In the moment, it’s never so clear, and that’s what I want to write about.
I use this same analogy with the stock market, no one ever taps you on the shoulder and tells you to sell. There has to be a sense of intuition that brings these decisions. A gut instinct. Risk / Reward consideration. With Lamar, I knew he was different. Most analysts thought he would never amount to a star because of his so called deficiencies, which you see now was preposterous. Meaning analysts know very little about the future. Mahomes started 2018 at 100-1 for MVP.
Basketball is bit different with Giannis starting at 4-1 last year before winning. Doncic this year is behind Giannis (-140) at +400 and I think that’s where money should go. Not as impressive as 40-1 though.
After it’s all said and done, if you don’t put your money where your mouth is, there is no sense in talking about it. All I get is this post and the wisdom of trust your gut.
I recall having a similar experience when I was living in Detroit. The Tigers had finished 4th in their division – and 28 games behind their division rivals (and eventual World Series winner) Chicago White Sox. Detroit used to air Spring Training games on non-cable television. My buddy used to bet in England on sports – where they sold like stocks. I called him and said that I thought the Tigers would be pretty competitive this season – which he laughed at. He laughed and asked why. Told him I’ve been watching practices on tv and they have two rookies that throw 100mph+ (Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya), and a closer that throws 100. They were “selling” at 10c to win the WS prior to the season, and my buddy pushed me to put $150 on my hunch. I balked.
Verlander went 17-9 and won the AL Rookie of the Year. Zumaya led the majors with 233 pitches of 100mph+ (and set the record then with a 104.8mph pitch), and Verlander, Zumaya and Rodney combined to be the first trio in MLB history to throw 100mph in a single game. The Tigers lost the division by 1 game, but won the Wild Card. They beat the heavily favored Yankees in a series 3-1, then swept the Oakland A’s (who had just swept their previous opponent).
The Tigers entered the World Series – winning valued at $20. $150 could have paid for my graduate education. Trust what you see. 😉