10. Bench Construction – My bench is an actual bench. I have to legitimately decide who to play because my players are that good. Marquis Goodwin? Jordan Reed? Chris Ivory? Sproles? I mean c’mon. This isn’t even close.
9. The Guts – Yes I have a huge balls playing Justin Jackson on Thursday night. Of course I missed the opportunity to play Damien Williams, but that seemed a tougher decision than a back who I knew was going to get the work instead of a back who would most likely get the work. Sitting Tyler Boyd was a difficult because he’s the only guy who should get work, but Driskel is too risky for my blood. Winner’s stick their neck’s out with challenging decisions.
8. Patriots RB’s – I’m probably giving away too much info here, but in all likely hood, I’ll have the same dominating result as I did last week. Sam’s team was rolling when James White was featured with the other backs being injured. Now he’s playing 44% of the snaps and that’s a problem in the semi finals. You need guys playing 75% of the snaps and not splitting time. If he doesn’t do something, this will be his downfall. Let’s get Rob Kelley’s opinion on this blurb.
7. PITT vs NE – The game that will decide our match up. My Edelman blocker on Brady is nice because it limits Sam’s upside if he wanted to play Brady which, if I were him, I’d have to consider. Sure, Luck is in a dome and playing well, but Brady is Brady and he’s probably going to be Angry Brady after losing on that shocker from Miami. Ben to JuJu will be my savior which I’m not completely set on yet. I hate putting all my eggs in one basket, but this connection would make or break my line up. I already mentioned the importance of Sam’s RB’s in this game, and that will obviously come into play.
6. Thielen, Woods, Kittle, and Evans – These are all strong players. Evans has the worst matchup with Baltimore and I don’t see him having a huge game. The Rams are going to toast the Eagles and I have to hope it’s everyone else, but Woods. Kittle is coming off a 210 yard performance which works both ways because it flashes the upside, but Seattle is going to, smartly, see that as their only weapon. Thielen gets Miami at home which will produce points. I’d give his core receivers a B.
5. My weak TE – In prior years I’ve won championships, my TE was usually Gronk. It always occurred to me that having a stand out TE makes life so much easier because you take a position that you can legitimately score 0.0 at and smash 20 spots in it. This year I wasn’t so lucky dropping Olsen and streaming the entire season. Last week I caught a flash in the pan 2 TD’s from Brate after a waiver wire pick up. This week I decide between Brate and Thomas. I’m leaning Thomas after his 9 target week last week. Same issue though, I don’t want to rely on 2 players in the Carolina game against the Saints.
4. TC’s QB – Very rarely do I have 3 QB’s on my roster. This week I have 3 potential starts in my mind with each coming with their own issue. Ben left last week with a rib injury, got shot up, and came back. He blamed the X-Ray machine for being old and not being able to identify the problem. He is the strongest start against NE because I see the game being competitive, and especially if they fall behind, he’s going to have to start slinging. I’ve watched Lamar intently the last 3 weeks because I know his ceiling in fantasy. Unfortunately even with his strong rushing, he is turnover prone, and with Flacco back now, I can see the Ravens either benching him if things go bad, or intermittently using Flacco which is a huge bust. I rostered Josh Allen for his rushing. He’s had 100 yards in 3 games straight and even though the Bills offense is abysmal, he’s a fantasy performer. If I get a feeling that Ben’s injury is worse than it appears, I may play Allen. If not, Ben will be the QB who takes me into the finals.
3. Special Teams – Zuerlein against the Eagles seems favorable, but as I learned with the Thursday night game, offenses that score TD’s, don’t lead to many FG’s. This could certainly prove possible against the Birds. I can choose between Washington and NYG for my D. Jacksonville with Fournette seems tougher to me than the hot Giants against Marcus Mariota. This is the weakest spot on my team. Sam is kicking Matt Bryant against Arizona which seems dubious in my mind. Atlanta against Arizona is a fine play.
2. Projected to Win – I’m already a 63% favorite. Last week in another league I was projected to lose by 24 and ended up winning by 40. Projections don’t mean everything. It’s nice to be ahead though.
1 . CMC and Saquon – There’s not much else to say other than here is why I’m going to win. 20 is their projection which is on the high side. However, these two are the entire offenses. CMC is relentless fed inside the red zone. He catches passes. He breaks tackles. He plays 99% of the snaps. He’s dominant. I can write the exact same points about Saquon and even more so with OBJ out. These guys are projected for 40 and have upside for 70. Can they dud? I honestly don’t think so. In 4 quarters, at some point they will eat. CMC’s matchup against the Saints is appealing because the game should put some points on the board. The Titans defense is underrated in Saquon’s case. I just don’t think there are any other weapons so even if they game plan to stop him, it’s not that easy.
My Prediction
Obviously I’m predicting a W. Last week I had my opponent smashed after the first quarter and like I told Bud, it didn’t matter who I was going to play in my flex because I was going to wipe the floor with the guy I was playing. Sam’s team offers some upside but he’s capping it with both NE RB’s. I’d be lying if I didn’t say that I’m writing this so Sam gives is some thought and puts in Sproles or Dixon. From my perspective, Sam’s best chance to beat me is with huge games from Thielen and Woods. If they each go for 30, I have a chance of losing. Aside from my TE, I think every spot on my team can go for 20 points. If I can put up what I’m projected at which is 133, I don’t think Sam will get there. Having the 16 from Jackson already is immensely helpful.
If anyone read this far, I feel bad for you. This post holds zero value to anyone other than myself and my opponent. Either way, thanks for reading. Now you’re invested in my outcome and how my brain works regarding fantasy football.
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