For the St Jude golf playoff, I have bet Cam Smith at 10-1 ($15), 7-1 ($15), 6-1 ($40), 16-1 ($20), 25-1 ($22), & 18-1 ($30) which would win a bit less than 2k. I also have Will Zalatoris at 22-1 ($20), and Sepp Straka at 70-1 ($10). I pat myself on the back for the Straka pick because he was practically leading the tournament the 2nd day when I made it. Here are the current odds.
Adam asked me, “how did I know to bet on Smith”? In my mind, he’s the hottest golfer on the planet. What separates him is the putting. If you watched the Open, and saw him get up and down on the 17th, you’d know what I’m talking about. He has nerves of steel and who would you be the most scared of if you have bet a player leading a tournament and they were behind you? Cam Smith. He started the day 4 strokes behind Rory at the Open and won by 2! This isn’t another tournament, this is the FedEx cup playoffs and Smith, who also won the Players this year, doesn’t mess around. The reported LIV rumor that he’s leaving for $100 million isn’t my favorite bit of news to be circulating, but he doesn’t seem to be fazed.
Cam’s currently 2 strokes back of J.J Spaun, who won earlier this year at the Valero Texas Open. Valero was his first win and his last few tournaments are MC, 8th, 59th, and 4 more MC’s. It’s not that he can’t win, it’s that he most likely hasn’t felt this pressure before and that can lead to interesting results. I may put a few dollars on him if he starts to choke and his odds go from 5 to 20 in the first few holes because he’ll most likely be a part of the leaderboard at the turn. Straka is a golfer who won me a 130-1 shot and he can play solid, but streaky. His last 5 tournaments were MC’s and the 3 before that were 45th, 78th, 73rd. I don’t see him getting it done.
This brings us to Willy Z who is due for a win. His form is the same as usual with his last results 21st, 20th, MC, 2nd, 5th, MC, 2nd, MC, 6th. When Will is there, he’s near the top. Unfortunately I don’t see how he is going to beat Cam Smith today. Over the last 24 rounds, Cam Smith is the 3rd ranked player in shots gained approaching the green and 20th in putting. Willy is 7th and 32nd. Will is the better driver of the ball and Smith is better around the greens. If it comes down to these two, it’ll be an awesome finish.
I don’t see Trey, Troy, and Tyler, who have 4 wins between them, competing. Then you have 9 golfers who start 4 back, but if Cam is my “leader”, they are only 2 back. Finau, Fitzpatrick, Burns, and Im pose the biggest threats and are 100% potential winners if they go low. They have work to do though and a timely eagle on the 3rd can vault any of these guys quickly. Of the 4, it’s a crap shoot to me, and I don’t see huge edges. I may bet on each one of them at these odds so I get some hedge money coming towards the end.
I’ll be looking to add some money to my Zalatoris position if he gets off to a slow start and then if it actually does come down to a two horse race, I’ll be firing it up. Smith had birdie misses on 2 and 3 yesterday that give me the feeling he’s going to start fast today. If Spaun falters, then the chase pack is going to have to make some birdies. If Smith doesn’t get off slow, I don’t see how they catch him. Let’s win some money!