The Final Round of the US Open will conclude today. It’s a 6 horse race by the oddsmakers. Rose (+180), Woodland (+200), Koepka (+450), McIlroy (+1000), Louis (+1200), and Reavie (+2500). The next closest is Kuchar +6600. Here’s the leadboard:
The bets I currently have locked in that have a chance to cash are as follows:
Louis Win Outright – $43 to win $1205 – Bet 5 times ranging from 125-1 to 12-1 which it sits currently.
Chez Win Outright – $10 to win 3,000 – Smacked at 300-1
Viktor Hovland Low Amateur – $30 to win $75
4 back is nothing to sneeze at. However, if you look at the last 2 PGA Tournaments, Cantlay was down 4 and won by 4 over the 3rd round leader, and Rory won by 7 last week. So 4 strokes is not unattainable by any means and all 6 of the aforementioned golfers have a shot (at least in my mind). With money already on Louis and Chez, it’d be smart of me to look at the remaining 4 players and see if I can hedge a bit.
Gary Woodland – He has 3 PGA tour wins and is by far the least accomplished aside from Reavie. I think 2-1 is absurd for him even though he’s the leader. I think he’s more like 10-1 to win this tournament. I will not be hedging on Woodland.
Justin Rose – He cost me about 300 bucks when he lost to Keegan in the first leg of the Fed Ex Cup Championship. Even as I put that aside, he’s my horse in our RunYourPool pool which I currently sit in 1st. +175 is not a great number by any means, but I do believe he has the best chance to win this golf tournament. I will be putting some money on Justin Rose. Somewhere between $50-150.
Koepka – The FSU masher. He has more brawn than brains and nothing phases him. 4 back though at +450 just isn’t enticing. If this were +700, I’d be on it.
Louis – I already have bet on Louis a bunch and will not be touching 12-1 due to his nature of play. He either has it or doesn’t and I want to see how he plays 1-7 before putting more on him. If he starts getting 1 or 2 shots off the lead, you can be sure I’ll be adding to my bet.
Chez – My longshot is contending and that’s all you can ask for. At 300-1, there’s no reason to continue at 25-1. I’m not sure how he can win this tournament.
Rory – With a 61 in the final round last week, you know he’s capable of being the best golfer on the planet. Considering I think Woodland is not going to win, it means he’s only 4 off the lead and I will be putting a few dollars at 10-1. He’s a guy who you want to have money on.
DK and RunYourPool
I’m currently sitting in 1st with Bud 2 shots on my tail. 4 out of 5 guys in my lineup are solid and I’d like my chances to win, BUT Viktor Hovland is an absolute wild card for a final round here. If he can shoot even par, I like my chances of winning this tournment. The winner gets $350 which would be nice to add to the betting bankroll. Kudos to Bud for putting together another great lineup that will have him holding the outright cumulative lead which is where the real prize is won.
In Draftkings I made 1 solid lineup out of 5 even with JT missing the cut. This was a $44 dollar line up, so if any of these guys can have great days, I should at least cash and be close to breaking even on 4 other shitty lineups. I read somewhere that 42 of 49 golfers over $7,200 made the cut. Sheesh with the JT pick.