Bengals @ Chiefs (-7) – 3pm
I don’t know why you’d want to be on the Bengals today after watching what Mahomes did to the Bills. Yes, it’s 7. You can get into spots at the end of the game where the Bengals are leading and you have no chance of covering. These are some of the worst spots in sports betting (and best if you’re on the flip side). If you’re a regular reader you know I have a futures prop bet on the Chiefs to win the Superbowl @+600 or so for about $200. I don’t see the Chiefs losing this game in any way possible. Mahomes has too much experience and Burrow is going to be shell shocked on the pressure of this game. Plus with Tennessee delivering 9 sacks against him, this isn’t a Ryan Tannehill run offense he’s against where he gets that margin of error. I’ll be taking the points begrudgingly because all I’ve been reading is “experts” taking the Bengals plus the points. I smell a blowout.
I’ve been getting crushed on JaMaar Chase not scoring TD’s in the playoffs. Losing hundreds of dollars on him left and right I’m going to go right back to the well for a 1st TD. While at it, take the over 83.5 yards. Adam Levitan, who is a far better bettor than me says to take the under fwiw. I’ll give you his props for those who don’t have a subscription (CEH Under 42.5, Burrow under 39.5 attempts, Akers over 57.5 yards, Hardman under 2.5 receptions, and Mixon under 32.5 receiving yards.) I’ll also be taking the Mahomes rushing yards over 29 and +2.5 passing TDs, because he’s a bad man.
Pick – Chiefs -7, Over 54.5
49ers @ Rams (-3.5) 6:30 pm
I’m not sure what to write here because these are two of my least favorite teams. I know Evan has a futures bet on the Rams @12-1 for a nice chunk of change so I’m definitely rooting for that. Aside from Deebo, I hate all aspects of the 49ers. Jimmy G is just a covering machine being terrible. You’re not supposed to cover when you stink. Which means that this defense has to be better than anyone thinks. Or maybe they do think they are good. I have no idea. On the flip side, Stafford throws to Cooper Kupp and everyone is busting a nut. This game has the identity of paint drying which was exactly what happened in that Niners Packers game that I lost a lot of money on.
My lean is to the Niners covering because that’s just what Jimmy G does. I hate the play and quite honestly will only be playing it light unless I absolutely smash the above game. I’ll probably lay some action on an OBJ 1st TD or anytime TD. He’s coming alive again.
Pick – Niners +3.5