After a break from sports betting, I opened the flood gates last night with a $300 deposit.

Money flowed easily after smashing a live bet of LaSalle +9.5 at halftime against A10 rival Richmond (they were down 39-40). Lasalle went on to win outright which Gourlay hit for $10 to win $120.

But I know nothing about College Basksetball, so it makes sense that I’d be able to win a few bets there.

The NFL however I follow pretty closely.

There’s one bet I love today, and it’s Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Tampa. Why do I love it? All the reasons you’d expect:

  • It’s in Lambeau.
  • It’s going to be like 20 degrees and maybe snowing (bad for a Florida team!).
  • The public loves betting Brady.
  • Rodgers and Adams are unstoppable.
  • Brady and the Bucs are kind of sloppy and beat the Saints after they were gifted four turnovers.

With all of that said, my lock is:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3!

For those who followed my “Lock of the Week” segment (great segment btw), you may think this is using the same logic. My logic for locks were “when a line doesn’t make sense, bet in the direction that makes the least sense“.

My logic for this bet is different. It’s a little something new I’m working on:

I’m a losing bettor. I have 10 years worth of data that I pick more losers than winners. If I just reverse EVERY bet, I will become a winning bettor.”

How does this logic not work? Where does it fail? The fact that I really want to bet Green Bay means ~60% of the time the Bucs will cover.

If this works… watch out. I think I’m on to something here.