You’re getting a rare treat. I’m ready to dole out some money winning selections. Remember, I’m a losing gambler. There is no reason to follow me but it’s fun to do bad things. These are all picks that I will be backing so you know I have skin in the game. I track all the picks in my spreadsheet which I’ll update today BEFORE the games so there’s no funny business and you can see what I’m on and how much confidence I have on it by the money I lay.
Bengals (+3.5) @ Titans – 4:30pm – 17°
The hook in gambling terms is the .5 added to key numbers like 3 & 7. Any good gambler knows that you don’t get beat by the hook. This is what I look like when I see the hook on the side of the game I like.
The oddsmakers know this so I understand the skeptical nature about betting the Bengals. However, they’re my team this year because I’ve won my biggest bet, $750, ever on them in a blowout against the Steelers. Take that for what you will.
Burrow is a stud and Chase is even more so. I’m going off of memory, and too lazy to look it up, but Chase leads the league in catches over 50+ yards with 8. If you know me, I’m attracted to the best, and this stat leads me to believe Ja’maar Chase is the most explosive player in the NFL (honorable mention Deebo). I’ll be taking player props with the two of these guys every game for the rest of my life. I’m on Chase over 76.5 yards, Burrow over 375 passing yards & 3 tds (+1100), Chase 1st TD & anytime TD.
Do I think Derrick Henry is the best player in the NFL and if he’s healthy the Titans will dominate? Absolutely a possibility. Betting against the Big Dog is dumb at home and he’s a monster in cold weather in the playoffs. He improves as the game wears which is the opposite of most players. How healthy he truly is is what I’m banking on. I’m more confident in the over player props (if the Bengals get down they’ll have to pass) than the game, but I can’t stay away from that .5. I’ll take cold weather native (born in Iowa and played HS football in Ohio) Burrow against Tannehill who has moderate experience in the playoffs (lost to the Ravens in the 1st round last year, lost to the Chiefs in 2019 in the AFC championship game). One last note is the Titans have nice wins on the season against the Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Niners, and Colts twice. They’re a solid football team, but I’d like to see a close game where the Bengals are ahead and the Titans driving to win with a 1 pt FG.
49ers (+5) @ Packers – 8:15pm – 19°
I’m trying hard to think of a reason how the 49ers are going to cover these 5 points and I can’t come up with one except for Deebo passing for 300, running for 300, and receiving 300 yards. The Niners, oddly, have game planned Kittle out recently (21, 29, 10, 18 yards the last 4 games). E. Mitchell is a solid RB (hasn’t lost a fumble in tons of touches) and Aiyuk is a nice 2nd option, but if you trust Jimmy G, and his record would suggest you should (14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog), I don’t. This is a warm weather team going into a cold weather environment against arguably the best QB, and most likey MVP, Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers go up early with Rodgers to Adams connections. do you seriously think Jimmy is leading a recovery going toe to toe with Rodgers? I don’t think so, pal. So how do the Niners win? Fluke plays like fumbles and picks which bad quarterbacks are known for, not Aaron Rodgers. I think this number should be 13 or even 20. Great win against the Cowboys in a hard fought game (Jimmy tried to lose it if you watched), but the Niners run stops here. Also, one dumb observation that has no validity to it, if the first game goes to the points, don’t be surprised if the next one goes opposite, and vice versa.
If I’m taking some players props, which I don’t like as much in this game because of how I would predict it goes down, which is the Packers get out front early and play keep away the rest of the game, you hammer the Rodgers to Adam’s connection. 1st Td. Anytime Td. Stay away from the Packers run game because it’s unknown. Maybe a Lazard 1st TD. On the flip side, just bet Deebo. I lost last week because I took Deebo’s receiving yards and he was used more as a back. Fool me once shame on you… I’d take the running & receiving props for Deebo & anytime score. Anyone else on this team worth mentioning? You’re guess is as good as mine.
Side note, if I’m right on the majority of what plays out on the first game, I will be going fucking HAM on the 2nd game. Whatever is in the spreadsheet is not going to be updated live. I will put hundreds more on the Packers, and the Rodgers to Adams props, so lets hope that line stays below 7.
Remember, I’m just a guy. Don’t blame me if you take my advice and it falls flat on its face. That’s on you. Take responsibility for your own actions. However, when I hit, I hit hard.