Tom ain’t the only SplittingTens blogger who can lose money sports betting!
Below are the NBA futures bets I’ve placed this season in order from worst bet to best, with my prized bet saved for last.
THE STINKERS
These were all preseason picks that somehow weren’t even close.
$50 Wizards OVER 24.5 Wins +100 – LOSS – Not even close and I don’t want to talk about it.
$50 Cade Cunningham Most Improved +1500 – LOSS – I still like the idea, but the Pistons are so bad.
$100 Wemby vs. The Field ROTY +172 on THE FIELD – GOING TO LOSE – Chet was favored at one point and I figured it was 50/50 that Wemby got injured.
THE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
$50 to win $3300 Pelicans to Win the Championship
A wildly overlooked team who could easily lose in the first round, but 65-1 are big odds and aside from Denver I think they can compete with anyone. The match up is TBD, but they’re going to be big underdogs in the first round regardless. If by some miracle they play and beat Denver, it will be huge for me (see Brilliancy below).
$70 to win $2030 Timberwolves to Win the Championship
They haven’t proven it in the playoffs, but I got them at 28-1 and they’re currently set at 19-1. They’re playing the Suns in round one who crushed them in the last game of the season and are actually favored in the series, so not super optimistic and probably no value for hedging purposes unless they win a round.
$75 to win $2050 Sixers to Win the Championship
Two bets placed over a week in November that I felt great about. A late season Embiid return has absolutely brought these back to life which were placed at 26-1 odds compared to current odds of 16-1. Assuming the Sixers play the Knicks, there may be some value to betting the Knicks at ~+125 in round 1, but it may be best to wait a round.
The Brilliancy
$115 to win $9315 Thunder to Win the Championship
Four bets placed between October 11th and November 19th averaging 80-1 odds on the OKC Thunder to win it all who are currently 16-1 and the #1 seed in the West. Extremely young and no playoff pedigree, but SGA is the real deal and these bets have value already – they’re offering me nearly $400 to cash out.
WHAT IS THE PLAY HERE?!
We need to see their first round match up. If it’s the Lakers, then it’s honestly possible that the Lakers are favored in the series because they’re a bad match up and the public loves them / Lebron. In that case, I would probably leave it completely untouched.
I made a table showing the outcomes if I bet against them each round and what the return would be based on the odds, but it’s too hard to predict future series odds. I don’t know what a WCF with Denver and OKC would be, -150 Denver? -250? That’s a huge difference. Same problem with a Boston OKC final.
Sheee told me to not even bother for round 1, and that may be the move. Just figure it out as it gets closer, but I wanted to make this post to brag about the bet.
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