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Hitting The Longshot

April 2, 2019

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Hitting The Longshot

It’s 6:59am and I’ve gone astray from my typical routine of getting to work at 7:45ish, eating breakfast, reading the WSJ and doing the crossword. Today I woke up early and got breakfast at a corner diner. I only had $8 in my pocket, and didn’t want to go into my envelope which has accrued from various gambling endeavors, so I ordered scrambled eggs, bacon, and coffee. It perfectly came to $6 dollars and I tipped $2.50 (I had .50 in my jacket). TC, why did you tip 41.66%? This is a part of our culture I’ve always found absurd. Why does the server who does virtually the same task for all breakfast endeavors deserve less, technically insulting, money if a the bill comes to $6? I’m supposed to tip $.95. It doesn’t make sense.

So that puts me here at 7:03am (I’m surprised I typed all that in 4 minutes but streams of thought are easy to write) and finally have a few free minutes to write an entry. I don’t have the energy after work, and it’s not like I don’t like posting, I can’t find the time. So here we are. Unfortunately I have a customer driving 2 hours to visit the shop at 8am sharp and I’m expecting him to arrive any minute because people are crazy. So I have to rush this entry.

The Longshot

I’ve found myself in an excellent scenario to win some money this weekend. Most likely it’ll all go south and I’ll be shaking my head one more time to the “why me?” Here’s Jennifer Aniston for no reason at all.

I’ll start by giving a current update on my 2019 betting.

  • Down $471 on Bovada
  • Down $568 on DFS
  • Down $1220 at the Sugarhouse

You can also take -$140 for a subscription service I pay for. So obviously not too impressive looking. HOWEVER, we have this current scenario which I’ll describe how to get myself out of this hole.

The first part to realize is that I have already won an $100 dollar entry NCAA, 10 person pool for say $700 profit. Here’s where the fun starts.

This bracket is currently in 10th place out of 326 people. At a $10 entry, 75% of $3,260 is $2,445 for first.

Some thoughts:

  • I win nothing if MSU beats Texas Tech.
  • No one has Auburn in the finals.
  • Only 1 other person has Texas Tech and I’m ahead
  • A Texas Tech – Auburn Win/Win locks it up for me even if TTU loses to Auburn in the finals.
  • If VA beats Texas Tech in the finals, I will also not get first.

Where the fun begins is knowing that if Auburn wins the first game (6pm) against VA, I’m so money I don’t even know it. So my first thought is to put some money on the futures of MSU and VA to lock up some money.

If I put $200 on VA and MSU, then I’d lose $100 if VA wins and lose $70 if MSU wins it all. Doesn’t make sense because the odds are no good.

So betting on MSU is how I hedge this position (especially if Auburn wins the first game). If I put $500 on MSU -150 against Texas Tech, I assure that I can win $375 at the very least. This is a no brainer bet if Auburn wins ahead of time and not as clear if VA wins.

So the question becomes, should I just let it ride? Sure I walk away with virtually nothing if Texas Tech loses. That’s what I’ve been doing my whole life with sports betting so what’s the difference? It’s not like I need the money, it’s just better to win every once in a while to substantiate the losing. The real fun factor will be if I lock it up with a Texas Tech-Auburn final and then I can say that I’ve won about $3500 on this tournament (probably more because I’d win Softerware’s too) and can make a big time, heat check bet, on either team. Fun days ahead.

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