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Official Sixers ’18 – ’19 Season Predictions from Splitting Tens

October 15, 2018

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Official Sixers ’18 – ’19 Season Predictions from Splitting Tens

I’m titling this post that way because Tom will try to write some smear post saying they’ll win 45 games and get bounced in the first round and I will NOT be associated with a site with those types of erroneous predictions.


Last year, I wrote this post which was almost 100% accurate.

Here’s this year.

Fultz

The biggest x-factor this year is how Fultz fits in. If Fultz is a stud, we can win the East. If Fultz is a minor contributor, then we’re losing to Boston most likely.

I have no idea what to expect here. I’ve seen his ‘new’ shot and it doesn’t look good, but it’s better than what he had.

I hope like everyone else that he’s fixed, but I don’t see him being THAT impactful this year. He won’t be the third best or most important player on the team this year. Having him in the starting line up to start is even a little scary. But we have to try it.

If he gets through the whole season healthy and proves he can shoot a bit, then I’m happy. However, the lack of a real shooting guard will be felt.


Health

I didn’t put ‘health’ as the number one priority like last year because Embiid and Simmons have proven they can play a full NBA season. Simmons I wasn’t ever worried about, but Embiid played 63 games last year and had a flukey eye injury which took him out of a couple games that I don’t count.

I fully expect both of them (and Fultz) to stay healthy, which is really the only thing that could derail this season.


What Vegas Thinks

Per Bovada:

To win the East

  • BOS -130
  • PHI +375
  • TOR +400

With no Lebron, Boston is the clear favorite, understandably so.

I’m not on board the Toronto train and I don’t have any confidence in the Raptors making a deep run this year.

Sixers being ahead of Toronto feels right to me, but +375 isn’t that encouraging compared to Boston at -130. I hoped it would be a little tighter than that.

To win the Championship

  • GSW -195
  • BOS +500
  • HOU +850
  • LAL +1000
  • TOR +1400
  • PHI +1600

Injury is the only thing that will stop the Warriors from winning again.

I don’t put nearly as much weight in this as I do the Eastern Conference lines because clearly these odds are skewed due to dumb LA fans hammering the Lakers. +1600 is acceptable for the Sixers though (but I’d put them as 4th best odds to win not 6th best).


MY PREDICTION

  • 55-27 (O/U is 54 so slight bias there)
  • 2 seed
  • Joel plays 70+ games and is top 5 in MVP voting
  • Simmons is 1 or 2 in the league in APG
  • Markelle averages 10-12 PPG and shoots 34% from 3 on not that many shots
  • Redick shoots 44%+ from 3, I think he’s going to be very effective this year

And finally, unfortunately, the Sixers lose to the Celtics in the ECF in 6 or 7.

3 Comments
  1. Luke S

    I agree with most of your predictions for the Sixers' season. Embiid looks like he will be absolutely dominant this year and Simmons will probably be the same stats-wizard again. I'm a little worried about Fultz as I can see him averaging a measly 10 ppg or upwards of 16-17 ppg. A lot does depend on him as he'll get so much more playing time. I think they will miss Belinelli and Ilyasova quite a bit, but hopefully Shamet, Muscala, and Chandler all play well and shoot consistently. Toronto is being over-hyped. The only way they are as good as some think they could be is if Kawhi becomes the beast he was as an MVP candidate. I never liked that they fired Dwayne Casey after winning 59 games so I'm cheering against them a bit.

  2. Brookes

    I think Simmons is in for some regression this season. The playoff series with Boston kind of exposed some limitations to what he can do - or at least offered a blueprint of how to slow him down/frustrate him. If he starts hitting jump-shots, than all that changes. I agree and think Fultz will have a productive role-playing year, but nothing special. I think he really finds his game and legs with the team in year 3. I noticed CJ McCollum was not mentioned in your prediction... ;) Are there any players you anticipate being traded / arriving in the coming season? I feel that Dario may be strong trade-bait to bring a nice piece into the fold...

    • Sam Stortz

      We'll see about Simmons, I think he'll still be effective. Embiid on the other hand, if he doesn't get this turnover problem in check, could be in for regression (though I think he'll be good). Fultz was invisible in the first game of the year. Obviously too early to tell, but it doesn't inspire confidence. Boston is a match up nightmare for us. Depending on how players develop will determine if we make moves. We can always use more shooting.

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